Ok yesterday I wrote a short post saying the next big quake (which apparently is a 6.5 or higher) was going to be in Indonesia. 4 hours later I get an email from the USGS, a 6.6 in Indonesia. Was it luck, did I know something no-one else knew? Um, no, it was just good statistics.
Indonesia is huge, with many faults and a couple of long subduction zones and complex fault zones. And it gets a lot of quakes. And it hadn’t had any for a while so it was due. A little math and hey presto.
Now if I had predicted which fault, and a size and a time/date I would be strutting today but no it was just a good guess backed up by some good stats.
And the good people of Turkey are still shaking today with a new quake just 30 minutes ago. when will they be able to rest easy, rebuild and get on with their lives? I don’t know but I hope it is soon.